Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -3.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +4.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.98% | 9.60% | -4.00% | 4.42% | -4.16% | 1.77% | -2.62% | 1.24% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.35% | 7.29% | -1.00% | -0.13% | -0.85% | -2.04% | 7.84% | -1.43% | 12.28% | 0.64% | 1.16% | -9.35% |
| 2024 | -3.30% | -11.99% | 3.11% | -0.04% | 3.20% | -2.70% | 9.12% | 5.06% | 7.57% | 2.31% | 8.61% | -6.95% |
| 2023 | -1.91% | -6.11% | 5.28% | 3.66% | -6.61% | -3.99% | 0.90% | -8.93% | 1.06% | 3.58% | 2.65% | 2.62% |
| 2022 | 2.90% | -3.34% | 7.94% | 1.51% | 2.84% | -5.40% | 3.42% | 1.46% | -13.24% | 1.73% | 7.85% | 0.53% |
| 2021 | -4.02% | -8.44% | 14.36% | 7.20% | -0.59% | -6.44% | 3.60% | 0.73% | -8.47% | 3.34% | -1.33% | 6.96% |
| 2020 | -9.93% | -2.61% | 5.41% | 2.31% | -3.25% | 10.46% | 0.62% | -0.04% | 1.48% | -3.81% | -0.37% | |
| Avg | -0.50% | -3.27% | 3.30% | 3.15% | -0.55% | -3.15% | 4.68% | -0.41% | -0.14% | 2.18% | 2.52% | -1.09% |
XEL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XEL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
XEL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XEL Distribution of Daily % Changes