Seasonality
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APO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.06% | -21.94% | 6.52% | 15.53% | 0.41% | -8.08% | 6.15% | 12.08% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.52% | -12.45% | -8.26% | -0.34% | -3.90% | 8.55% | 2.43% | -5.91% | -2.17% | -6.72% | 6.48% | 9.79% |
| 2024 | 7.74% | 11.78% | 0.58% | -3.62% | 7.61% | 1.64% | 6.13% | -7.26% | 7.93% | 14.69% | 22.52% | -5.64% |
| 2023 | 10.96% | 0.73% | -10.92% | 0.36% | 6.17% | 14.90% | 6.38% | 7.47% | 2.77% | -13.73% | 19.39% | 1.29% |
| 2022 | -3.35% | -6.22% | -5.01% | -19.73% | 16.71% | -15.89% | 17.78% | -2.02% | -16.34% | 19.05% | 26.12% | -8.07% |
| 2021 | -6.21% | 8.92% | -4.95% | 17.78% | 4.47% | 8.48% | -5.37% | 2.44% | 3.03% | 24.94% | -7.41% | 2.33% |
| 2020 | -10.28% | -19.59% | 20.87% | 18.75% | 4.87% | -1.64% | -3.55% | -4.52% | -17.63% | 19.68% | 12.29% | |
| Avg | 0.93% | -4.21% | -5.95% | 4.41% | 7.18% | 2.07% | 4.55% | -1.47% | -1.55% | 3.43% | 14.47% | 2.00% |
APO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
APO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
APO Distribution of Daily % Changes