Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
X.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +6.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.2% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +7.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -3.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.75% | -8.00% | 7.22% | 12.30% | -6.46% | -10.00% | 10.36% | 5.95% | -3.29% | 9.91% | ||
| 2025 | 1.58% | 14.75% | 2.20% | 6.34% | -0.35% | 4.06% | -2.39% | -2.27% | -2.94% | -2.84% | -0.41% | 1.81% |
| 2024 | 3.74% | 7.63% | 0.37% | 2.02% | 0.88% | 4.10% | 10.19% | 2.92% | -1.40% | 2.60% | 2.23% | 0.02% |
| 2023 | -3.23% | 4.43% | 0.32% | 0.53% | 8.33% | 0.87% | -1.71% | 2.66% | -2.37% | -1.06% | 2.08% | 9.39% |
| 2022 | 0.83% | -0.32% | 0.42% | 1.72% | 5.87% | -4.82% | 0.30% | 1.04% | -3.67% | 3.09% | 8.35% | -3.91% |
| 2021 | -2.99% | -0.94% | 7.49% | 3.72% | -1.48% | -1.31% | 4.64% | 1.88% | -1.59% | -1.90% | -6.94% | 3.45% |
| 2020 | -8.24% | -6.21% | 15.10% | 15.00% | -2.74% | 2.00% | 0.67% | -0.13% | -5.46% | -0.74% | -0.51% | |
| Avg | -0.64% | 1.33% | 1.68% | 5.96% | 3.11% | -1.41% | 3.34% | 1.84% | -2.20% | -0.93% | 0.76% | 1.71% |
X.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
X.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
X.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes