Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.66% | 22.85% | -14.24% | -10.23% | 2.26% | -4.00% | -5.22% | 16.02% | -6.11% | -7.86% | ||
| 2025 | 7.59% | 1.76% | 16.80% | 3.92% | 5.37% | 7.38% | -2.07% | 18.79% | 8.70% | -4.39% | 20.36% | -2.54% |
| 2024 | -2.32% | -0.12% | 14.18% | 13.44% | 1.72% | -5.73% | 0.66% | 3.95% | -1.04% | 8.95% | -2.36% | -6.98% |
| 2023 | -4.00% | 2.89% | 9.09% | 8.84% | -11.59% | -5.54% | -0.66% | 3.98% | -5.17% | -0.90% | 7.85% | -6.86% |
| 2022 | -0.33% | 2.31% | 16.72% | 2.50% | -13.49% | 5.59% | -10.48% | 6.88% | 9.38% | -12.80% | 12.53% | 9.65% |
| 2021 | 1.38% | -9.43% | -9.48% | -13.21% | -4.35% | 33.94% | 3.54% | |||||
| Avg | 0.32% | 5.94% | 8.51% | 3.70% | -3.14% | -0.15% | -4.53% | 6.69% | -1.24% | -2.70% | 14.46% | -0.64% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.5% with a 80% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -4.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +14.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +14.8% historically, with January alone posting a 40% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -21.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
TFPM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TFPM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TFPM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TFPM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes