Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
RCI-B.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.79% | 5.91% | -0.83% | -7.57% | 7.58% | -12.44% | 2.86% | 7.73% | -13.46% | 3.51% | ||
| 2025 | -9.66% | 0.65% | -3.17% | -6.48% | 2.50% | 11.16% | 14.58% | 6.33% | -1.65% | 14.57% | -0.47% | -4.24% |
| 2024 | 1.24% | -4.36% | -6.81% | -7.08% | 6.79% | -7.26% | 5.51% | 2.32% | 0.45% | -7.01% | -1.13% | -10.72% |
| 2023 | 2.08% | 0.76% | -3.13% | 6.86% | -10.59% | 1.85% | -4.47% | -4.80% | -4.25% | -1.48% | 13.72% | 7.03% |
| 2022 | 7.04% | 1.58% | 8.84% | -1.10% | -7.30% | -4.15% | -4.56% | -3.94% | -5.04% | 6.58% | 9.12% | 3.24% |
| 2021 | -2.62% | -4.47% | 5.99% | 4.47% | 2.08% | 7.48% | -3.37% | 0.94% | -7.24% | -2.69% | -0.69% | 6.28% |
| 2020 | -7.17% | -3.75% | -0.75% | -1.03% | -4.66% | 0.28% | -0.80% | -1.77% | 2.46% | 13.19% | -2.45% | |
| Avg | -0.45% | -1.01% | -0.41% | -1.66% | 0.00% | -1.14% | 1.55% | 1.11% | -4.71% | 2.07% | 5.62% | -0.15% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.6% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
RCI-B.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RCI-B.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RCI-B.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes