Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +5.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -4.9% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +9.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -19.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.43% | 20.38% | -17.91% | -5.55% | 2.70% | -12.41% | -7.24% | 22.88% | -4.49% | -5.84% | ||
| 2025 | 3.27% | -1.49% | 14.94% | 8.79% | 6.14% | 0.02% | 9.66% | 14.98% | 26.58% | -19.33% | 8.24% | -0.03% |
| 2024 | 3.60% | 1.17% | 12.48% | -4.86% | 8.18% | -6.53% | 13.56% | -3.84% | 7.88% | 11.86% | -3.00% | -3.99% |
| 2023 | 9.13% | 0.39% | 19.78% | 3.09% | -2.13% | -5.23% | -3.98% | -7.62% | -11.35% | 6.27% | 17.29% | -4.59% |
| 2022 | -9.30% | 11.47% | 5.73% | -4.12% | -9.74% | -8.67% | 3.31% | -5.22% | 11.18% | 3.84% | 16.15% | -3.51% |
| 2021 | -11.41% | -11.13% | 9.37% | 7.23% | 15.84% | -0.87% | 0.12% | -9.41% | -7.30% | 9.84% | -0.13% | -0.47% |
| 2020 | -16.44% | -4.33% | 21.05% | 7.47% | -0.36% | 15.78% | 1.91% | -1.25% | -5.40% | -5.30% | 14.69% | |
| Avg | 0.95% | 0.62% | 5.72% | 3.66% | 4.07% | -4.87% | 4.46% | 1.95% | 3.04% | 1.18% | 5.54% | 0.35% |
OR.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
OR.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
OR.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OR.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes