Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +9.1% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +8.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -31.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.58% | 32.96% | -26.89% | -9.20% | 1.90% | -17.70% | -8.30% | 29.63% | -11.75% | 1.08% | ||
| 2025 | -10.61% | 4.38% | 5.99% | 5.65% | -0.53% | -6.99% | 6.36% | 61.41% | 2.02% | 10.89% | 1.79% | 2.05% |
| 2024 | -4.07% | 9.32% | 45.74% | 18.09% | 12.61% | -6.00% | 8.09% | -22.83% | -1.53% | 24.35% | -17.50% | -9.60% |
| 2023 | 12.50% | -12.35% | 11.27% | 6.33% | -7.14% | 2.56% | 3.75% | 3.61% | -5.81% | -11.11% | 22.22% | 39.77% |
| 2022 | -5.49% | -8.14% | -11.39% | -17.14% | -15.52% | 8.16% | 1.89% | 16.67% | 6.35% | 0.00% | 13.43% | -5.26% |
| 2021 | 2.80% | 0.00% | -2.72% | 10.49% | 2.53% | -16.05% | -9.56% | -7.32% | -20.18% | 3.30% | -2.13% | -1.09% |
| 2020 | -5.65% | -4.27% | 40.18% | 1.91% | 12.50% | 38.89% | -17.20% | -11.59% | -1.64% | -16.67% | -4.67% | |
| Avg | -0.38% | 2.93% | 2.53% | 7.77% | -0.61% | -3.36% | 5.87% | 9.14% | -6.07% | 4.30% | 0.19% | 3.53% |
GAU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GAU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GAU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GAU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes