Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +10.0% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -6.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +11.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
BTO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.28% | 26.40% | -24.30% | -2.85% | 7.49% | -18.99% | -1.32% | 44.76% | -1.88% | -9.96% | ||
| 2025 | -0.28% | 10.26% | 6.47% | 5.38% | 6.96% | 7.31% | -5.28% | 21.67% | 21.92% | -10.76% | 5.70% | -4.36% |
| 2024 | -10.50% | -12.80% | 10.22% | -1.97% | 10.34% | -2.98% | 12.81% | -8.45% | 11.95% | 10.05% | -11.30% | -12.52% |
| 2023 | 9.56% | -11.57% | 15.91% | -0.19% | -5.63% | -5.14% | -3.18% | -8.97% | -5.05% | 13.85% | 3.15% | -7.42% |
| 2022 | -8.03% | 11.79% | 13.13% | -5.05% | -7.89% | -12.21% | 2.75% | -10.04% | 11.49% | -6.31% | 12.74% | 3.76% |
| 2021 | -11.36% | -12.34% | -1.47% | 9.43% | 4.39% | -15.08% | 0.58% | -6.69% | -10.29% | 18.01% | -0.98% | -0.53% |
| 2020 | -6.46% | -20.35% | 65.26% | 7.81% | 2.10% | 20.21% | -5.60% | -0.44% | -1.15% | -15.52% | -0.81% | |
| Avg | -2.22% | 0.75% | -0.06% | 10.00% | 3.35% | -6.43% | 3.79% | 3.81% | 3.96% | 3.95% | -1.03% | -3.65% |
BTO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BTO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BTO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes