Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +3.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.2% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +2.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.1% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -9.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.51% | 1.85% | -0.85% | -8.03% | 7.74% | -11.03% | -0.46% | 7.46% | -10.14% | -1.17% | ||
| 2025 | 3.87% | -3.44% | 1.72% | -7.24% | -2.42% | 2.45% | 7.02% | 6.03% | -3.85% | -1.41% | 2.68% | 0.81% |
| 2024 | 3.99% | -7.17% | -6.67% | -1.74% | 3.07% | -2.88% | 5.10% | 1.37% | 1.71% | -4.53% | -15.57% | -9.60% |
| 2023 | 5.73% | -4.02% | 1.92% | 7.57% | -5.96% | 0.20% | -5.70% | 0.49% | -7.82% | -0.71% | 3.79% | -0.62% |
| 2022 | 0.90% | 0.26% | 5.48% | -1.44% | 0.89% | -6.89% | 2.26% | -2.04% | -7.25% | 6.09% | 4.25% | -5.76% |
| 2021 | -0.35% | 0.35% | 5.83% | 2.41% | 2.96% | 3.66% | 1.86% | 5.67% | -2.29% | 0.41% | 0.91% | 3.74% |
| 2020 | -5.47% | -0.44% | -2.49% | 1.67% | 0.38% | -0.81% | -0.18% | -0.04% | -3.04% | 5.16% | -1.93% | |
| Avg | 3.61% | -2.52% | 1.00% | -1.57% | 1.14% | -2.01% | 1.33% | 2.69% | -4.24% | -0.53% | 0.20% | -2.23% |
BCE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BCE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BCE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BCE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes