Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.80% | 53.97% | -31.67% | -10.26% | 8.92% | -17.31% | -12.62% | 36.04% | -11.96% | -17.95% | ||
| 2025 | 4.81% | -6.30% | 24.13% | -10.50% | -1.55% | 33.06% | -2.22% | 14.13% | 35.96% | 4.92% | 17.73% | 8.53% |
| 2024 | -23.37% | -1.93% | 30.22% | 15.47% | 6.37% | -17.01% | 5.43% | -11.52% | 7.55% | 26.72% | -15.58% | -8.99% |
| 2023 | -6.83% | -20.74% | 17.15% | -1.85% | -17.79% | -4.71% | 17.49% | -5.72% | -16.04% | 2.59% | 13.69% | 0.25% |
| 2022 | -8.24% | 10.53% | 15.20% | -19.23% | -23.98% | -8.43% | 6.28% | -2.17% | 10.11% | 8.52% | 9.06% | -9.69% |
| 2021 | 35.07% | -0.56% | -14.56% | -5.00% | 16.25% | -9.52% | -12.87% | -4.70% | -11.75% | 9.34% | -2.90% | -7.56% |
| 2020 | -24.06% | -13.92% | 28.90% | 22.42% | -1.89% | 32.44% | -9.34% | -21.90% | 7.66% | -0.81% | 26.33% | |
| Avg | 4.21% | 1.56% | 3.79% | -0.35% | 1.52% | -3.69% | 4.85% | 2.39% | -1.15% | 9.96% | 3.53% | 1.48% |
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +10.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
AG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes