Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +8.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -6.6% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +13.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
AEM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.20% | 32.37% | -17.44% | -9.54% | -0.76% | -12.85% | -7.64% | 38.18% | -7.13% | -6.60% | ||
| 2025 | 20.11% | 3.61% | 11.87% | 3.93% | 0.18% | 0.29% | 6.02% | 15.12% | 18.71% | -3.76% | 8.07% | -4.30% |
| 2024 | -9.04% | -0.67% | 24.09% | 7.94% | 7.24% | -3.73% | 19.05% | 3.57% | -0.77% | 10.31% | -1.29% | -4.74% |
| 2023 | 6.79% | -15.66% | 9.68% | 11.55% | -9.40% | -4.24% | 4.50% | -4.31% | -5.93% | 5.38% | 12.85% | -0.27% |
| 2022 | -9.64% | 5.47% | 20.39% | -2.25% | -9.69% | -12.11% | -6.55% | -0.70% | 7.75% | 2.69% | 13.96% | 3.85% |
| 2021 | -0.36% | -19.94% | 2.27% | 5.74% | 11.85% | -12.34% | 7.67% | -9.50% | -9.49% | -0.03% | -2.39% | 5.51% |
| 2020 | -21.83% | -11.79% | 44.77% | 8.65% | -1.32% | 22.36% | 1.36% | -1.35% | -0.58% | -18.87% | 5.26% | |
| Avg | 3.18% | -2.38% | 5.58% | 8.88% | 1.15% | -6.61% | 6.49% | 6.25% | 0.26% | 2.33% | 2.06% | 0.88% |
AEM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AEM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AEM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes