Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.6% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.79% | 8.64% | -7.54% | 2.68% | -6.88% | 8.05% | -4.12% | -3.37% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.73% | 20.39% | 0.63% | -4.40% | -3.85% | 2.95% | -2.72% | 1.96% | 3.92% | -9.07% | 10.85% | -0.79% |
| 2024 | -0.90% | 7.43% | 0.17% | 1.88% | -2.23% | -3.62% | 0.28% | 2.08% | 3.55% | -6.12% | 5.93% | -2.97% |
| 2023 | 1.90% | -2.12% | 3.87% | 6.44% | -8.03% | 7.66% | -0.64% | -5.58% | -3.43% | -3.27% | 4.37% | 4.07% |
| 2022 | -9.86% | -1.61% | -3.30% | -1.28% | 4.33% | -6.55% | 7.96% | -8.78% | -4.40% | 11.20% | 9.30% | -0.45% |
| 2021 | -6.51% | 2.50% | 4.49% | 10.48% | 0.79% | -4.12% | 14.22% | 0.10% | -6.66% | 2.15% | -1.29% | 13.04% |
| 2020 | -15.24% | -23.22% | 26.12% | 4.36% | -3.14% | 4.76% | 5.79% | -4.75% | 2.22% | 13.87% | 2.61% | |
| Avg | -2.55% | 2.86% | -3.56% | 5.99% | -1.64% | 0.18% | 2.82% | -0.74% | -1.96% | -0.48% | 7.17% | 2.58% |
YUM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
YUM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
YUM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
YUM Distribution of Daily % Changes