Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.3% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -16.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.24% | -5.71% | -7.76% | -1.12% | -6.93% | 7.91% | -1.05% | 2.32% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.91% | 5.85% | -8.73% | 0.93% | 4.87% | 2.63% | 11.80% | -1.84% | 4.20% | 2.27% | -6.48% | -3.19% |
| 2024 | -1.68% | 13.32% | 1.72% | 1.13% | 8.18% | -3.82% | -1.57% | 3.29% | -1.82% | -9.81% | 4.37% | -8.47% |
| 2023 | -5.93% | -1.00% | 2.00% | -0.82% | -3.18% | 12.40% | 0.12% | -7.87% | -12.08% | 2.76% | 12.76% | 8.78% |
| 2022 | -12.42% | -15.02% | -4.15% | -5.58% | 5.04% | -7.20% | 17.72% | -0.68% | -4.11% | 17.25% | 9.98% | -1.58% |
| 2021 | -5.11% | 3.37% | 5.64% | 5.20% | 7.01% | 1.56% | 4.91% | 8.54% | -9.27% | 5.59% | -7.06% | -0.98% |
| 2020 | -5.00% | -15.79% | 10.39% | -7.36% | -2.08% | 12.35% | 10.22% | 4.91% | 3.59% | 10.45% | 6.06% | |
| Avg | -2.83% | -0.60% | -3.87% | 1.45% | 1.09% | 1.63% | 6.32% | 1.94% | -3.03% | 3.61% | 4.00% | 0.10% |
XYL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XYL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
XYL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XYL Distribution of Daily % Changes