Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.39% | -3.87% | -4.42% | -11.87% | -2.55% | 5.07% | 28.52% | -1.29% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.21% | 3.06% | -0.23% | -8.92% | 2.84% | -2.88% | 3.04% | 3.48% | 6.00% | -9.36% | 2.52% | 2.65% |
| 2024 | 2.11% | 10.68% | 1.20% | -8.68% | 1.65% | 3.03% | 7.68% | 3.48% | 1.13% | 2.60% | 6.56% | -2.45% |
| 2023 | 3.93% | -7.80% | -0.48% | -0.34% | -5.51% | 8.00% | -10.26% | -2.16% | 1.47% | 12.89% | 4.41% | -1.73% |
| 2022 | -1.49% | -4.98% | 6.62% | -9.04% | -1.76% | -6.09% | 4.84% | -0.05% | -2.46% | 8.59% | 12.81% | -0.30% |
| 2021 | -3.67% | 8.72% | 4.05% | 13.10% | 1.24% | -11.99% | -10.41% | 7.10% | 5.69% | 4.22% | -6.79% | 5.51% |
| 2020 | -10.43% | -9.88% | 4.97% | 13.80% | -2.59% | 6.63% | -2.13% | 1.94% | -12.61% | 14.09% | 1.54% | |
| Avg | 0.45% | -0.66% | -0.45% | -2.97% | 1.39% | -1.07% | 4.29% | 1.62% | 2.29% | 1.05% | 5.60% | 0.87% |
WTW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WTW Distribution of Daily % Changes
WTW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -3.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +8.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
WTW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years