Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.15% | 8.37% | -4.21% | 1.20% | -9.07% | 5.86% | 1.65% | -0.88% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.15% | 5.68% | -0.18% | 0.80% | 3.26% | -4.71% | 0.15% | -1.21% | -2.09% | -9.54% | 9.06% | 1.23% |
| 2024 | 3.65% | 10.78% | 4.02% | -2.41% | 1.30% | 1.61% | -5.01% | 4.63% | -1.74% | 3.97% | 5.73% | -11.28% |
| 2023 | -1.37% | -3.21% | 9.47% | 1.76% | -2.49% | 7.57% | -5.55% | -4.28% | -2.33% | 7.80% | 4.48% | 4.74% |
| 2022 | -9.86% | -4.01% | 10.23% | 3.75% | -3.61% | -3.09% | 7.57% | 2.72% | -4.86% | -1.15% | 5.90% | -6.10% |
| 2021 | -5.61% | -0.39% | 16.90% | 6.94% | 1.96% | 0.00% | 5.82% | 4.62% | -3.35% | 7.28% | 0.27% | 4.25% |
| 2020 | -8.95% | -16.09% | 8.06% | 6.73% | -0.29% | 3.48% | 4.01% | -0.25% | -4.65% | 10.40% | -0.54% | |
| Avg | -0.48% | 1.18% | 2.88% | 2.87% | -0.27% | 0.99% | 1.16% | 1.75% | -2.44% | 0.62% | 5.98% | -1.28% |
WM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.4% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -8.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
WM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WM Distribution of Daily % Changes