Seasonality
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WEC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +4.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -2.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +3.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.94% | 6.57% | -1.02% | 1.87% | -5.04% | 5.15% | -6.29% | 1.89% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.55% | 8.42% | 2.15% | 0.50% | -1.05% | -3.02% | 4.68% | -1.56% | 7.59% | -2.50% | 1.11% | -5.90% |
| 2024 | -4.05% | -1.76% | 4.62% | 0.63% | -0.98% | -3.17% | 9.69% | 9.12% | 3.39% | -0.68% | 6.69% | -6.94% |
| 2023 | 0.25% | -4.88% | 6.91% | 1.46% | -8.42% | 1.02% | 1.84% | -5.54% | -4.24% | 1.04% | 3.75% | 0.66% |
| 2022 | -0.03% | -5.60% | 9.83% | 0.24% | 5.77% | -4.22% | 3.15% | 0.05% | -13.29% | 2.12% | 9.43% | -5.43% |
| 2021 | -3.40% | -8.57% | 16.06% | 3.83% | -2.66% | -5.28% | 5.83% | 1.07% | -6.65% | 2.11% | -2.74% | 11.66% |
| 2020 | -6.98% | -4.55% | 2.75% | 2.06% | -4.45% | 8.68% | -0.56% | 3.00% | 3.77% | -4.99% | -3.08% | |
| Avg | 0.54% | -1.83% | 4.86% | 1.61% | -1.47% | -1.99% | 3.94% | 0.43% | -1.70% | 0.98% | 2.21% | -1.50% |
WEC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WEC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WEC Distribution of Daily % Changes