Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.40% | -13.85% | -6.76% | 3.84% | 24.04% | -2.22% | 0.61% | 9.24% | ||||
| 2025 | 12.00% | -9.18% | -2.32% | -5.65% | 0.43% | -0.06% | -17.27% | 4.52% | -0.66% | 16.61% | 15.39% | -5.85% |
| 2024 | -3.50% | 6.20% | 2.02% | -10.22% | -0.05% | -6.08% | 15.91% | 2.99% | 3.91% | -10.22% | 19.07% | -3.57% |
| 2023 | -4.09% | -5.38% | -0.41% | -2.99% | -16.36% | 6.10% | 3.63% | 1.66% | -2.35% | -13.01% | 17.64% | 17.33% |
| 2022 | -14.08% | -1.06% | -2.00% | -2.37% | 8.23% | 0.92% | 9.99% | -17.97% | -9.74% | 11.00% | 15.85% | -1.16% |
| 2021 | 6.97% | 3.48% | 3.76% | 5.52% | 7.46% | 7.25% | 12.79% | 6.21% | -13.70% | 2.87% | -10.74% | 13.57% |
| 2020 | -12.91% | -6.59% | 2.72% | 6.87% | -9.73% | 18.15% | 1.46% | -9.52% | 13.87% | 4.12% | 6.64% | |
| Avg | -0.85% | -4.67% | -1.76% | -1.31% | 4.38% | -0.55% | 6.26% | -0.19% | -5.34% | 3.52% | 10.22% | 4.49% |
WAT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WAT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +18.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
WAT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WAT Distribution of Daily % Changes