Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.82% | 14.83% | -5.32% | 7.99% | -3.12% | 3.23% | 7.89% | 2.81% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.67% | -10.73% | -2.16% | 1.87% | 9.65% | 3.47% | -8.26% | 0.88% | 3.60% | 1.98% | 2.13% | 2.35% |
| 2024 | 3.68% | 7.55% | 3.11% | 10.57% | 5.18% | -6.61% | 1.96% | 5.36% | 7.19% | 3.42% | 6.83% | -5.50% |
| 2023 | 4.01% | 0.67% | -3.13% | -3.35% | -4.99% | 18.40% | 8.00% | -4.86% | -5.55% | -0.24% | 10.11% | 8.87% |
| 2022 | -3.48% | 4.58% | 3.61% | -6.51% | 5.24% | -13.11% | 13.88% | -6.08% | -7.19% | 14.66% | 8.54% | -1.27% |
| 2021 | 1.38% | -2.26% | 9.29% | 3.68% | 0.99% | -0.56% | 3.12% | 5.94% | -3.99% | 5.24% | -2.04% | 3.76% |
| 2020 | -6.85% | -29.94% | 17.22% | 8.49% | -5.73% | 8.03% | 7.19% | -7.02% | -4.17% | 23.83% | -0.14% | |
| Avg | 3.85% | 1.11% | -3.51% | 4.50% | 3.06% | -0.13% | 4.94% | 1.41% | -2.16% | 3.48% | 8.23% | 1.35% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +27.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
WAB - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WAB - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WAB Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WAB Distribution of Daily % Changes