Seasonality
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VZ - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +5.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -2.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +6.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.9% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +23.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.20% | 12.62% | 0.12% | -2.88% | -0.46% | -11.44% | 12.44% | 3.57% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.24% | 9.42% | 5.24% | -1.31% | -0.23% | -1.57% | 0.42% | 3.44% | -0.63% | -8.02% | 3.45% | -0.92% |
| 2024 | 14.23% | -5.50% | 4.85% | -4.36% | 4.20% | 0.22% | -0.14% | 3.11% | 7.49% | -4.73% | 5.25% | -9.81% |
| 2023 | 7.17% | -6.64% | 0.21% | 1.50% | -8.24% | 4.38% | -6.72% | 2.64% | -7.35% | 10.71% | 9.11% | -1.64% |
| 2022 | 3.68% | 0.83% | -5.09% | -8.00% | 10.78% | -1.05% | -7.84% | -9.48% | -9.18% | 0.08% | 4.31% | 1.08% |
| 2021 | -5.81% | 1.00% | 5.15% | 0.45% | -2.25% | -0.81% | 0.67% | -1.40% | -1.80% | -0.72% | -5.13% | 3.36% |
| 2020 | -8.88% | -0.79% | 8.07% | -0.12% | -3.92% | 5.43% | 3.11% | 0.37% | -3.18% | 6.00% | -2.75% | |
| Avg | 5.12% | 0.41% | 1.38% | -0.93% | 0.53% | -2.03% | 0.61% | 0.24% | -1.85% | -0.98% | 3.83% | -1.78% |
VZ - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VZ Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VZ Distribution of Daily % Changes