Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.37% | 10.93% | -4.47% | 7.43% | -3.92% | 5.80% | 5.30% | -2.13% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.60% | 14.50% | 0.09% | 1.92% | -8.28% | -1.00% | 6.38% | 1.34% | 3.52% | 5.43% | 9.27% | -3.44% |
| 2024 | -6.92% | -8.84% | 4.03% | 1.70% | 13.51% | 1.99% | 7.14% | 14.09% | 3.25% | 2.84% | -2.17% | -7.37% |
| 2023 | 15.01% | -6.10% | -9.98% | 10.84% | -10.22% | 10.62% | 2.64% | -9.98% | -2.51% | 0.78% | 7.96% | 9.69% |
| 2022 | 3.72% | 1.85% | 15.20% | -10.06% | 2.14% | -8.56% | 4.57% | -11.01% | -15.10% | -2.59% | 18.91% | -2.21% |
| 2021 | -6.06% | 14.83% | 1.67% | 3.97% | -0.02% | 3.78% | 4.69% | -6.42% | -0.51% | -3.33% | -12.09% | 9.91% |
| 2020 | -7.07% | -48.75% | 20.71% | 8.04% | 6.08% | 4.75% | 7.43% | 2.91% | -5.93% | 21.38% | 3.31% | |
| Avg | 1.45% | 2.87% | -6.03% | 5.22% | 0.18% | 2.67% | 5.07% | -0.76% | -1.41% | -0.47% | 7.21% | 1.65% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.0% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +11.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
VTR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VTR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VTR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VTR Distribution of Daily % Changes