Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +8.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -0.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -44.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.85% | 9.81% | -13.43% | 5.00% | 1.51% | -0.86% | -6.58% | -0.04% | ||||
| 2025 | 21.88% | -20.45% | -11.98% | 10.38% | 23.87% | 20.85% | 7.60% | -9.32% | 3.71% | -3.89% | -5.01% | -9.68% |
| 2024 | 6.52% | 32.93% | 28.15% | 8.89% | 30.64% | -13.00% | -7.86% | 7.84% | 39.09% | 5.42% | 27.91% | -13.61% |
| 2023 | -0.60% | -4.64% | 10.01% | -0.58% | 0.46% | 10.41% | 6.90% | 11.97% | 6.26% | -1.39% | 8.22% | 9.40% |
| 2022 | -4.22% | 4.63% | 2.66% | 7.61% | 5.40% | -12.66% | 13.13% | -4.26% | -14.54% | 9.38% | 5.92% | -3.87% |
| 2021 | 1.58% | -13.62% | 3.33% | -4.58% | -4.15% | 15.66% | 3.23% | -0.31% | -9.67% | 14.56% | 1.48% | 15.37% |
| 2020 | -14.61% | -16.27% | 22.43% | 4.61% | -8.29% | 0.21% | 3.05% | -1.22% | -7.90% | 7.54% | 6.04% | |
| Avg | 3.88% | -0.85% | 0.35% | 7.02% | 8.91% | 1.73% | 2.38% | 1.50% | 3.94% | 2.70% | 7.68% | 0.61% |
VST - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VST - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VST Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VST Distribution of Daily % Changes