Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +16.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +28.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.3% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +8.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
VRT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VRT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.92% | 36.91% | -1.67% | 31.09% | -3.89% | 6.08% | -27.85% | 7.10% | -3.82% | |||
| 2025 | 3.00% | -18.67% | -24.10% | 18.25% | 26.41% | 19.02% | 13.39% | -12.40% | 18.31% | 27.84% | -6.77% | -9.86% |
| 2024 | 17.28% | 20.04% | 20.82% | 13.87% | 5.45% | -11.70% | -9.09% | 5.50% | 19.86% | 9.85% | 16.75% | -10.94% |
| 2023 | 4.10% | 14.28% | -11.94% | 4.26% | 29.36% | 28.34% | 5.01% | 51.44% | -5.56% | 5.56% | 11.18% | 10.07% |
| 2022 | -16.46% | -37.58% | 7.53% | -10.50% | -12.29% | -25.20% | 38.93% | 0.96% | -15.70% | 47.22% | -3.14% | -1.37% |
| 2021 | 7.77% | 4.03% | -4.44% | 13.50% | 9.34% | 9.99% | 2.71% | 0.46% | -14.48% | 6.60% | -0.12% | -2.61% |
| 2020 | -4.92% | -26.63% | 22.43% | 20.21% | 6.52% | 6.93% | 11.93% | 6.72% | 1.91% | 6.01% | -0.16% | |
| Avg | 5.10% | 2.01% | -5.78% | 13.27% | 10.66% | 4.72% | 4.29% | 9.29% | 1.52% | 16.50% | 3.98% | -2.48% |
VRT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VRT Distribution of Daily % Changes