Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -4.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +4.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -20.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
VRSK - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.79% | -4.55% | -8.35% | -2.77% | -5.15% | 2.87% | 8.53% | -6.76% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.36% | 3.29% | 0.40% | -0.40% | 5.97% | -0.70% | -10.53% | -3.80% | -6.03% | -13.02% | 2.88% | -0.41% |
| 2024 | 1.12% | 0.15% | -2.39% | -7.54% | 15.98% | 6.79% | -2.89% | 4.23% | -1.64% | 2.52% | 7.09% | -6.26% |
| 2023 | 3.04% | -5.87% | 12.34% | 1.17% | 12.88% | 3.32% | 1.29% | 5.80% | -2.33% | -3.76% | 6.19% | -0.93% |
| 2022 | -14.25% | -9.58% | 21.23% | -4.93% | -14.28% | -0.86% | 9.91% | -1.62% | -8.73% | 7.21% | 0.48% | -3.81% |
| 2021 | -11.60% | -10.71% | 8.02% | 6.51% | -8.17% | 1.26% | 8.71% | 6.22% | -0.60% | 4.99% | 6.94% | 1.85% |
| 2020 | -4.53% | -9.98% | 9.65% | 12.99% | -1.27% | 10.88% | -1.08% | -0.58% | -3.96% | 11.43% | 4.83% | |
| Avg | -3.35% | -4.54% | 3.04% | 0.24% | 2.89% | 1.63% | 3.70% | 1.62% | -3.32% | -1.00% | 5.84% | -0.79% |
VRSK - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VRSK Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VRSK Distribution of Daily % Changes