Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.37% | 3.15% | -11.99% | 10.81% | -6.05% | 4.27% | -8.96% | 5.20% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.58% | -9.79% | -5.46% | 12.44% | 1.23% | -1.60% | 5.31% | 6.18% | 5.65% | -5.89% | 2.85% | -4.04% |
| 2024 | -0.44% | 17.63% | 2.84% | -5.60% | -0.55% | -2.77% | 10.39% | -10.50% | 2.13% | 9.38% | 5.36% | -10.72% |
| 2023 | 4.69% | -1.32% | -4.94% | 2.08% | 11.89% | 15.31% | -2.19% | -0.83% | -7.44% | -2.74% | 8.91% | 6.30% |
| 2022 | -8.32% | -4.45% | 1.24% | -6.21% | -4.07% | -13.81% | 16.35% | 0.93% | -5.27% | 3.80% | 12.24% | -4.48% |
| 2021 | 0.56% | 12.22% | 1.05% | 5.62% | 3.06% | -5.05% | 3.40% | 3.50% | -9.02% | 12.39% | 0.98% | 8.32% |
| 2020 | -14.87% | -10.14% | 4.53% | -3.79% | 6.95% | 1.36% | 2.47% | 12.95% | 6.86% | -3.35% | 6.20% | |
| Avg | 1.41% | 0.37% | -3.91% | 3.38% | 0.24% | 0.47% | 3.66% | 0.29% | -0.17% | 3.97% | 4.50% | 0.26% |
VMC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VMC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VMC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VMC Distribution of Daily % Changes