Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.45% | 13.48% | 20.74% | 2.23% | -2.61% | 6.38% | 20.61% | 9.19% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.38% | -1.71% | 1.02% | -12.10% | 12.04% | 4.23% | 2.98% | 10.71% | 12.01% | -0.41% | 4.90% | -7.90% |
| 2024 | 7.66% | 1.84% | 20.66% | -6.34% | -1.03% | -0.24% | 3.16% | -8.66% | -7.97% | -3.90% | 8.00% | -11.86% |
| 2023 | 10.38% | -5.24% | 5.97% | -17.86% | -5.79% | 9.59% | 9.90% | 1.57% | 9.09% | -10.38% | -0.49% | 3.70% |
| 2022 | 10.46% | 1.80% | 21.59% | 9.79% | 17.20% | -17.99% | 4.22% | 6.66% | -8.77% | 17.50% | 7.17% | -5.06% |
| 2021 | -0.25% | 38.52% | -6.99% | 3.30% | 10.08% | -2.89% | -14.23% | 0.44% | 6.42% | 9.58% | -12.33% | 12.21% |
| 2020 | -20.50% | -31.53% | 39.66% | 6.85% | -11.73% | -4.40% | -4.81% | -17.63% | -10.87% | 41.76% | 5.21% | |
| Avg | 8.18% | 4.03% | 4.50% | 2.67% | 5.25% | -1.81% | 3.18% | 0.98% | -1.14% | 0.25% | 8.17% | -0.62% |
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +8.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -1.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +16.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +16.7% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +79.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
VLO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VLO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VLO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VLO Distribution of Daily % Changes