Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.37% | 7.65% | -13.27% | 31.74% | 3.95% | 13.78% | -4.73% | 7.09% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.61% | -15.07% | -2.43% | 0.76% | 12.46% | 6.36% | 17.19% | 8.53% | -0.18% | -8.74% | -6.23% | -0.72% |
| 2024 | 9.06% | 11.13% | 4.02% | -7.37% | 0.45% | -3.39% | 17.07% | -1.86% | 9.24% | 0.38% | 6.75% | -18.66% |
| 2023 | 24.06% | 6.60% | -15.53% | -8.76% | -7.16% | 33.43% | 4.34% | 2.87% | -6.71% | -8.62% | 17.57% | 20.46% |
| 2022 | -3.66% | 0.47% | 10.44% | -10.89% | -5.79% | -18.54% | 32.84% | -9.49% | -7.51% | 16.88% | 11.82% | 0.68% |
| 2021 | 4.79% | 22.37% | 10.74% | -2.84% | 4.38% | -4.48% | 3.30% | 7.01% | -0.49% | 8.03% | -10.65% | -1.90% |
| 2020 | -2.37% | -22.33% | 24.88% | 8.09% | 7.31% | 4.25% | 13.95% | -1.44% | 2.17% | 27.31% | 2.17% | |
| Avg | 6.42% | 4.40% | -4.05% | 3.93% | 2.34% | 4.92% | 10.61% | 3.50% | -1.18% | 1.68% | 7.76% | 0.34% |
URI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
URI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
URI Distribution of Daily % Changes
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.6% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +12.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +27.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
URI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data