Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.7% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
UPS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
UPS Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.09% | 10.69% | -15.16% | 10.59% | -0.29% | 0.76% | -3.05% | 0.27% | ||||
| 2025 | -9.41% | 5.69% | -7.59% | -13.36% | 4.03% | 3.49% | -14.64% | 3.40% | -4.47% | 15.43% | 1.07% | 3.55% |
| 2024 | -9.75% | 5.65% | 0.25% | -0.77% | -4.75% | -1.50% | -4.74% | -0.14% | 6.06% | -1.67% | 2.48% | -7.09% |
| 2023 | 6.55% | -0.61% | 6.30% | -7.31% | -6.23% | 7.34% | 4.40% | -8.65% | -7.99% | -9.38% | 8.59% | 3.71% |
| 2022 | -5.66% | 4.82% | 1.92% | -16.08% | 2.13% | 0.16% | 6.77% | 0.55% | -16.95% | 3.86% | 14.15% | -8.38% |
| 2021 | -7.96% | 2.47% | 7.70% | 19.92% | 5.77% | -3.09% | -7.99% | 2.77% | -6.92% | 17.23% | -6.61% | 8.05% |
| 2020 | -11.72% | 3.24% | 1.33% | 6.44% | 11.50% | 28.40% | 15.34% | 1.84% | -5.71% | 9.55% | -1.56% | |
| Avg | -3.19% | 2.43% | -0.48% | -0.81% | 1.02% | 2.67% | 1.31% | 2.21% | -4.74% | 3.29% | 4.87% | -0.29% |
UPS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
UPS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years