Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.6% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -28.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.69% | 2.40% | -13.08% | -5.98% | -13.17% | 1.91% | 13.28% | 0.94% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.09% | -7.06% | 7.34% | -5.76% | 7.50% | -4.73% | -8.11% | 9.09% | 12.71% | 6.15% | 12.27% | -10.44% |
| 2024 | 4.18% | 5.33% | 9.22% | -6.59% | 11.37% | -2.46% | 15.59% | 11.33% | -3.68% | -10.79% | 0.34% | -12.39% |
| 2023 | 5.20% | -9.75% | -4.84% | 18.29% | -11.98% | 19.41% | -11.92% | -2.92% | -6.66% | 0.13% | 9.37% | 10.88% |
| 2022 | 0.31% | 10.82% | 0.71% | -15.47% | 1.86% | -19.18% | 11.68% | -12.83% | -9.87% | 31.40% | 13.10% | 7.67% |
| 2021 | -9.32% | 0.52% | 6.59% | 11.26% | 7.56% | -8.15% | 9.55% | -2.77% | -11.16% | -10.31% | -4.17% | 9.21% |
| 2020 | -9.61% | -19.93% | 6.67% | -0.23% | -11.91% | 18.31% | 0.41% | -3.02% | 2.36% | 19.20% | 5.30% | |
| Avg | -0.37% | -1.05% | -2.00% | 0.35% | 0.41% | -3.59% | 6.91% | 0.38% | -3.61% | 3.16% | 8.35% | 1.71% |
UHS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
UHS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
UHS Distribution of Daily % Changes
UHS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data