Seasonality
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UAL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +12.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -12.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.50% | 3.89% | -13.39% | -2.25% | 27.56% | 18.46% | -10.78% | 3.31% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.00% | -11.37% | -26.39% | -0.33% | 15.43% | 0.24% | 10.90% | 18.90% | -8.10% | -2.55% | 8.42% | 9.67% |
| 2024 | 0.29% | 9.93% | 5.25% | 7.48% | 2.97% | -8.17% | -6.66% | -3.04% | 29.56% | 37.15% | 23.73% | 0.28% |
| 2023 | 29.87% | 6.13% | -14.84% | -1.02% | 8.38% | 15.59% | -1.02% | -8.29% | -15.08% | -17.23% | 12.54% | 4.72% |
| 2022 | -2.06% | 3.54% | 4.41% | 8.93% | -5.68% | -25.64% | 3.75% | -4.73% | -7.08% | 32.43% | 2.53% | -14.65% |
| 2021 | -7.54% | 31.73% | 9.23% | -5.46% | 7.26% | -10.39% | -10.65% | -0.45% | 2.28% | -3.01% | -8.41% | 3.60% |
| 2020 | -17.66% | -48.77% | -6.24% | -5.21% | 23.43% | -9.33% | 14.72% | -3.47% | -2.56% | 33.05% | -4.00% | |
| Avg | 3.51% | 3.74% | -12.07% | 0.16% | 7.24% | 1.93% | -3.40% | 2.85% | -0.31% | 7.37% | 11.98% | -0.06% |
UAL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
UAL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
UAL Distribution of Daily % Changes