Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.02% | 12.03% | -11.22% | 9.59% | -4.38% | -0.01% | -7.05% | 4.39% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.03% | -2.33% | -3.29% | -2.60% | 5.20% | 8.48% | -3.14% | 3.07% | 5.43% | -4.36% | 2.91% | 4.85% |
| 2024 | 5.33% | 5.15% | 7.73% | -11.82% | 3.57% | -1.97% | 8.20% | -1.83% | -2.85% | -9.21% | 6.48% | -10.65% |
| 2023 | 2.90% | -0.44% | -2.59% | -5.22% | -7.57% | 9.34% | 14.99% | -0.08% | 0.58% | -2.74% | 0.87% | 4.93% |
| 2022 | -11.84% | 7.45% | 1.74% | -6.90% | -5.72% | -6.44% | 7.48% | -4.97% | -6.58% | 17.47% | 4.30% | -0.79% |
| 2021 | -6.35% | 11.22% | 11.44% | 14.55% | 6.58% | 0.47% | 0.35% | 5.30% | -3.91% | 5.79% | -4.13% | 9.07% |
| 2020 | -11.60% | -34.27% | -1.16% | 17.49% | 6.32% | 6.17% | 12.85% | -8.42% | -0.80% | 25.98% | 7.21% | |
| Avg | -1.49% | 3.07% | -4.35% | -0.51% | 2.17% | 2.31% | 3.86% | 2.39% | -2.63% | 1.03% | 6.07% | 2.44% |
TXT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TXT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TXT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TXT Distribution of Daily % Changes