Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +7.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +13.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +47.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
TXN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TXN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TXN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.05% | -1.60% | -8.47% | 44.78% | 9.30% | -2.49% | -7.02% | -5.38% | 4.49% | |||
| 2025 | -0.82% | 6.16% | -8.31% | -10.18% | 14.25% | 13.55% | -12.16% | 11.83% | -9.26% | -11.34% | 4.22% | 3.10% |
| 2024 | -5.32% | 4.50% | 4.11% | 1.27% | 11.33% | -0.25% | 5.45% | 5.17% | -3.63% | -1.00% | -1.05% | -6.73% |
| 2023 | 8.02% | -3.25% | 8.49% | -10.11% | 4.80% | 3.53% | 0.69% | -6.63% | -5.38% | -9.87% | 7.53% | 11.62% |
| 2022 | -4.13% | -5.29% | 7.94% | -7.21% | 4.53% | -13.07% | 17.19% | -7.65% | -6.31% | 4.61% | 12.35% | -8.45% |
| 2021 | 1.56% | 3.97% | 9.71% | -3.96% | 5.16% | 1.31% | -0.32% | 0.15% | 0.68% | -1.86% | 2.61% | -2.03% |
| 2020 | -5.40% | -12.45% | 16.15% | 3.10% | 6.93% | 1.15% | 11.45% | 0.45% | 1.99% | 11.52% | 1.79% | |
| Avg | 4.06% | -0.13% | 0.14% | 4.39% | 7.50% | 1.36% | 0.71% | 1.28% | -3.91% | -2.91% | 6.20% | -0.11% |
TXN Distribution of Daily % Changes