Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +11.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.06% | 9.92% | -9.64% | 18.19% | -8.37% | 9.08% | -7.37% | 5.55% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.79% | -2.49% | -4.48% | 13.77% | 12.25% | 1.88% | 0.15% | -5.13% | 1.76% | 6.33% | -6.06% | -7.66% |
| 2024 | 3.34% | 12.20% | 6.47% | 5.71% | 3.19% | 0.71% | 1.63% | 8.19% | 7.75% | -4.78% | 12.44% | -11.08% |
| 2023 | 6.56% | 3.27% | -0.13% | 0.99% | -12.15% | 17.71% | 4.28% | 3.29% | -1.14% | -6.21% | 18.84% | 8.20% |
| 2022 | -14.32% | -11.07% | -0.37% | -8.39% | -1.31% | -5.47% | 13.18% | 4.82% | -5.60% | 10.23% | 11.77% | -5.43% |
| 2021 | -1.25% | 6.90% | 8.45% | 5.00% | 7.23% | -0.90% | 10.57% | -2.51% | -12.76% | 4.80% | 3.16% | 8.59% |
| 2020 | -3.14% | -17.09% | 5.85% | 3.19% | -0.81% | 25.72% | 5.83% | 2.86% | 9.48% | 10.16% | -0.37% | |
| Avg | 0.10% | 2.23% | -2.40% | 5.87% | 0.58% | 3.17% | 6.88% | 2.41% | -1.19% | 3.31% | 8.39% | -1.29% |
TT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TT Distribution of Daily % Changes