Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +27.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -24.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
TSLA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TSLA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TSLA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.29% | -6.48% | -7.64% | 2.66% | 14.19% | -3.49% | -26.01% | 18.23% | 3.31% | |||
| 2025 | 0.19% | -27.59% | -11.54% | 8.87% | 22.79% | -8.31% | -2.96% | 8.30% | 33.20% | 2.66% | -5.78% | 4.54% |
| 2024 | -24.63% | 7.79% | -12.92% | 4.26% | -2.84% | 11.12% | 17.28% | -7.74% | 22.19% | -4.50% | 38.15% | 17.00% |
| 2023 | 40.62% | 18.76% | 0.85% | -20.80% | 24.11% | 28.36% | 2.16% | -3.50% | -3.05% | -19.73% | 19.54% | 3.50% |
| 2022 | -11.36% | -7.08% | 23.80% | -19.19% | -12.92% | -11.19% | 32.38% | -7.25% | -3.76% | -14.22% | -14.43% | -36.73% |
| 2021 | 12.45% | -14.87% | -1.12% | 6.21% | -11.87% | 8.71% | 1.10% | 7.06% | 5.40% | 43.65% | 2.76% | -7.69% |
| 2020 | 2.68% | -21.56% | 49.21% | 6.79% | 29.32% | 32.50% | 74.15% | -13.91% | -9.55% | 46.27% | 24.33% | |
| Avg | 2.16% | -3.83% | -4.30% | 4.46% | 5.75% | 7.79% | 8.07% | 12.75% | 6.68% | -0.28% | 14.42% | 0.83% |
TSLA Distribution of Daily % Changes