Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -1.7% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +5.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -34.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.74% | 2.34% | -12.62% | -22.52% | -9.44% | 0.25% | -2.66% | 16.44% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.45% | 2.23% | -0.45% | -8.13% | -3.95% | 9.03% | 7.92% | 8.85% | -7.92% | -4.85% | 1.68% | -8.71% |
| 2024 | 4.45% | 13.75% | 2.91% | 4.34% | 4.88% | -5.36% | -2.47% | 2.02% | 8.74% | -8.74% | 7.26% | -6.48% |
| 2023 | 1.34% | 2.77% | 0.76% | 1.43% | -11.66% | 5.49% | 1.31% | -1.97% | -7.07% | -5.17% | 5.98% | 5.92% |
| 2022 | -8.50% | -6.25% | 14.51% | -13.68% | -6.51% | 3.46% | -1.22% | -2.87% | 0.39% | 18.23% | 3.42% | -0.59% |
| 2021 | 0.83% | 12.49% | 11.40% | 6.51% | -3.39% | 2.40% | -2.76% | 7.65% | 4.30% | 7.19% | 3.99% | 5.89% |
| 2020 | -4.44% | -4.47% | 19.96% | 20.69% | 8.01% | 8.31% | 4.54% | -3.69% | -7.07% | 6.03% | -0.16% | |
| Avg | 0.38% | 3.27% | 1.72% | -1.73% | -1.34% | 3.33% | 1.20% | 3.04% | -0.87% | -0.07% | 4.73% | -0.69% |
TSCO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TSCO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TSCO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TSCO Distribution of Daily % Changes