Seasonality
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TROW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.7% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.9% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.8% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.22% | -10.46% | -3.33% | 14.13% | 1.60% | 10.07% | -1.71% | -1.06% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.39% | -9.58% | -11.88% | -3.61% | 5.69% | 4.51% | 5.13% | 6.08% | -3.47% | -0.11% | -0.15% | 1.23% |
| 2024 | 0.71% | 4.52% | 8.71% | -10.13% | 7.54% | -1.09% | -0.95% | -7.15% | 3.95% | 0.85% | 12.73% | -7.73% |
| 2023 | 6.79% | -3.60% | 1.72% | -0.50% | -4.60% | 5.69% | 10.03% | -8.95% | -5.50% | -13.70% | 10.64% | 8.84% |
| 2022 | -21.47% | -6.39% | 5.52% | -18.62% | 3.29% | -9.60% | 8.68% | -2.81% | -11.58% | 1.10% | 17.66% | -11.80% |
| 2021 | 3.36% | 3.62% | 6.50% | 4.43% | 6.78% | 5.65% | 3.13% | 9.65% | -11.70% | 10.26% | -7.81% | -1.09% |
| 2020 | -11.62% | -16.43% | 18.41% | 4.56% | 2.93% | 11.82% | 0.80% | -7.23% | -1.22% | 13.22% | 6.20% | |
| Avg | -0.67% | -4.79% | -1.32% | 0.59% | 3.55% | 2.59% | 5.16% | -0.40% | -5.92% | -0.47% | 7.72% | -0.73% |
TROW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TROW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TROW Distribution of Daily % Changes