Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.48% | 17.33% | 6.33% | 4.25% | -1.93% | 5.12% | 1.30% | 2.00% | ||||
| 2025 | 10.66% | 2.50% | -0.62% | -14.27% | -7.59% | 10.23% | -3.83% | 0.81% | -0.13% | -7.45% | 13.81% | 5.24% |
| 2024 | -1.63% | 15.63% | 14.00% | 2.51% | 3.66% | 8.92% | 5.64% | 8.59% | 0.76% | 13.31% | 22.36% | -12.63% |
| 2023 | 2.54% | -1.23% | -1.55% | 4.24% | -9.90% | 11.83% | 8.41% | 5.20% | -0.61% | -1.88% | 8.18% | -3.96% |
| 2022 | 13.78% | 10.65% | 15.45% | -2.27% | -1.89% | -17.15% | 16.43% | -1.27% | -11.56% | 13.89% | 8.80% | -1.20% |
| 2021 | 4.12% | 13.01% | 2.65% | 9.58% | 12.02% | 14.38% | -5.04% | 4.30% | 12.04% | 11.30% | -5.56% | 1.18% |
| 2020 | -11.23% | -78.67% | 89.10% | 38.04% | 12.19% | -8.44% | -6.95% | -17.52% | 15.13% | 46.42% | 12.26% | |
| Avg | 6.49% | 6.66% | -6.06% | 13.30% | 4.63% | 6.50% | 2.07% | 1.78% | -2.84% | 7.38% | 15.67% | 0.15% |
TRGP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +15.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.1% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +24.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.1% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +19.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
TRGP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TRGP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TRGP Distribution of Daily % Changes