Seasonality
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Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +6.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.3% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +6.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -24.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
TMUS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TMUS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TMUS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.87% | 10.61% | -3.25% | -6.92% | -3.56% | -10.56% | 2.97% | 5.08% | -8.19% | |||
| 2025 | 5.55% | 16.15% | -1.10% | -7.41% | -1.56% | -1.63% | 0.06% | 6.07% | -5.00% | -12.25% | -0.00% | -2.86% |
| 2024 | 0.56% | 1.69% | -0.05% | 0.58% | 6.98% | 0.70% | 3.46% | 9.37% | 3.84% | 8.14% | 11.06% | -10.61% |
| 2023 | 6.65% | -4.78% | 1.87% | -0.65% | -4.62% | 1.20% | -0.81% | -1.10% | 2.79% | 2.72% | 5.04% | 6.57% |
| 2022 | -6.73% | 13.90% | 4.17% | -4.06% | 8.24% | 0.94% | 6.33% | 0.63% | -6.80% | 12.96% | -0.07% | -7.57% |
| 2021 | -6.50% | -4.85% | 4.43% | 5.46% | 7.05% | 2.39% | -0.56% | -4.86% | -6.76% | -9.96% | -5.41% | 6.59% |
| 2020 | 13.85% | -6.94% | 4.65% | 13.94% | 4.11% | 3.10% | 8.66% | -1.99% | -4.19% | 21.33% | 1.44% | |
| Avg | -0.56% | 6.65% | -0.12% | -1.19% | 3.78% | -0.41% | 2.08% | 3.41% | -2.32% | -0.43% | 5.32% | -1.07% |
TMUS Distribution of Daily % Changes