Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +11.1% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -6.6% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +10.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.14% | -9.94% | -5.58% | -2.56% | 2.83% | 1.90% | 14.55% | 2.44% | ||||
| 2025 | 14.90% | -11.51% | -5.85% | -13.79% | -6.10% | 0.76% | 15.35% | 5.35% | -1.47% | 16.98% | 4.13% | -1.85% |
| 2024 | 1.54% | 5.79% | 2.00% | -2.15% | -0.13% | -2.57% | 10.91% | 0.28% | 0.63% | -11.68% | -3.06% | -1.70% |
| 2023 | 3.57% | -5.01% | 6.46% | -3.73% | -8.37% | 2.68% | 5.16% | 1.54% | -9.08% | -12.13% | 11.46% | 7.14% |
| 2022 | -12.88% | -6.42% | 8.64% | -6.39% | 2.65% | -4.22% | 10.15% | -8.87% | -6.94% | 1.34% | 9.00% | -1.65% |
| 2021 | 9.43% | -11.70% | 1.46% | 3.03% | -0.16% | 7.51% | 7.04% | 2.77% | 3.00% | 10.81% | -0.04% | 5.48% |
| 2020 | -7.15% | -2.40% | 18.01% | 4.34% | 3.83% | 14.24% | 3.63% | 2.98% | 7.16% | -1.72% | 0.22% | |
| Avg | 2.74% | -6.56% | 0.67% | -1.08% | -0.71% | 1.41% | 11.06% | 0.78% | -1.81% | 2.08% | 3.30% | 1.27% |
TMO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TMO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TMO Distribution of Daily % Changes
TMO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years