Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.54% | 32.82% | -7.36% | 15.86% | 9.02% | 29.26% | -24.01% | 13.90% | ||||
| 2025 | -8.04% | -5.02% | -24.81% | -10.16% | 6.08% | 14.40% | 19.47% | 10.06% | 16.52% | 32.05% | 0.15% | 6.42% |
| 2024 | -10.99% | 7.37% | 8.92% | 3.09% | 21.27% | 5.21% | -11.55% | 4.25% | -1.96% | -20.70% | 3.68% | 14.47% |
| 2023 | 16.43% | -0.45% | 6.30% | -15.00% | 9.76% | 11.12% | 1.45% | -4.39% | -6.87% | -17.11% | 10.89% | 17.66% |
| 2022 | -28.19% | 0.51% | 0.26% | -10.80% | 3.71% | -18.04% | 12.66% | -16.00% | -11.21% | 8.25% | 15.01% | -6.53% |
| 2021 | -5.35% | 13.41% | -5.39% | 2.79% | 5.90% | 1.22% | -5.20% | -4.30% | -10.10% | 26.63% | 10.66% | 6.97% |
| 2020 | -10.82% | -7.81% | 15.45% | 7.33% | 26.10% | 5.27% | -4.49% | -6.38% | 10.56% | 25.72% | 8.66% | |
| Avg | -1.94% | 5.40% | -4.27% | 0.18% | 9.01% | 9.90% | -0.27% | -2.48% | -3.33% | 6.61% | 11.02% | 7.94% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +25.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +103.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
TER - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TER - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TER Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TER Distribution of Daily % Changes