Seasonality
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T - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +6.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -1.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +6.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.4% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
T - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.75% | 6.87% | 3.50% | -8.92% | -5.09% | -16.53% | 13.82% | 7.05% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.54% | 15.51% | 3.17% | -1.01% | 0.36% | 4.10% | -4.34% | 6.86% | -3.58% | -11.41% | 5.13% | -4.54% |
| 2024 | 7.14% | -4.30% | 3.96% | -2.46% | 7.87% | 4.88% | 2.24% | 3.38% | 10.55% | 3.77% | 2.75% | -1.68% |
| 2023 | 12.24% | -7.17% | 1.80% | -6.91% | -10.98% | 1.40% | -7.34% | 1.86% | 1.56% | 4.49% | 7.60% | 1.27% |
| 2022 | 6.47% | -7.10% | -0.25% | 7.20% | 12.88% | -1.55% | -9.21% | -6.60% | -12.54% | 20.95% | 5.76% | -4.51% |
| 2021 | 1.89% | -2.58% | 8.53% | 6.13% | -6.30% | -2.21% | -0.16% | -2.25% | -1.50% | -4.06% | -9.62% | 7.75% |
| 2020 | -6.38% | -17.23% | 6.98% | 1.28% | -2.04% | 0.11% | 0.78% | -4.36% | -2.91% | 6.40% | 0.03% | |
| Avg | 6.67% | -0.74% | 0.50% | 0.14% | 0.00% | -1.71% | -0.70% | 0.67% | -1.65% | 1.80% | 3.00% | -0.28% |
T Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
T Distribution of Daily % Changes