Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -12.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +20.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -13.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -23.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
SYF - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SYF - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SYF Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.95% | -4.46% | -1.58% | 12.03% | -5.87% | 6.45% | -0.34% | 2.14% | -8.32% | |||
| 2025 | 6.12% | -11.71% | -12.76% | -1.87% | 11.59% | 15.77% | 4.39% | 10.05% | -6.93% | 4.69% | 4.43% | 7.85% |
| 2024 | 1.78% | 6.94% | 4.41% | 1.99% | 0.14% | 7.74% | 7.63% | -0.49% | -0.76% | 10.55% | 23.01% | -3.73% |
| 2023 | 11.78% | -2.18% | -18.57% | 1.48% | 5.74% | 9.56% | 2.57% | -6.54% | -5.30% | -7.43% | 15.37% | 18.02% |
| 2022 | -8.19% | 0.95% | -18.63% | 6.36% | 0.62% | -25.43% | 22.08% | -2.18% | -13.92% | 26.95% | 5.68% | -12.56% |
| 2021 | -3.05% | 15.65% | 5.12% | 8.11% | 8.39% | 2.34% | -2.65% | 5.81% | -1.75% | -4.52% | -3.57% | 3.57% |
| 2020 | -9.62% | -44.71% | 23.00% | 4.09% | 8.79% | 0.82% | 12.11% | 5.48% | -3.56% | 21.78% | 13.92% | |
| Avg | -0.75% | -0.63% | -12.39% | 7.30% | 3.53% | 3.60% | 4.93% | 2.98% | -3.86% | 4.45% | 11.12% | 4.51% |
SYF Distribution of Daily % Changes