Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +7.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.9% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +28.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
SW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.65% | 13.92% | -15.23% | -3.66% | 8.41% | 12.42% | -0.63% | 2.95% | -0.87% | |||
| 2025 | -1.43% | -1.14% | -13.46% | -6.75% | 4.08% | -0.42% | 2.85% | 7.78% | -10.11% | -13.27% | -3.33% | 8.35% |
| 2024 | -1.30% | 1.79% | 9.39% | -1.78% | 16.89% | -7.87% | -2.73% | 6.54% | 4.22% | 4.21% | 7.48% | -2.11% |
| 2023 | 9.83% | -6.66% | -6.11% | 1.86% | 4.32% | -11.95% | 24.60% | 0.44% | -18.29% | -3.31% | 9.07% | 17.47% |
| 2022 | 0.80% | -4.19% | -15.57% | -2.06% | -4.73% | -16.74% | 11.38% | -12.68% | -6.78% | 7.32% | 14.64% | 1.86% |
| 2021 | 4.17% | -1.78% | -4.76% | 9.35% | 13.26% | -3.74% | 0.82% | 5.19% | -9.44% | 1.21% | 1.72% | 2.15% |
| 2020 | -12.30% | -16.39% | 11.16% | 12.39% | 3.99% | -2.72% | 12.66% | 7.58% | -1.63% | 15.18% | 6.81% | |
| Avg | 3.29% | -1.48% | -8.88% | 1.16% | 7.80% | -3.47% | 4.80% | 3.27% | -5.47% | -0.91% | 7.46% | 5.75% |
SW Distribution of Daily % Changes