Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.10% | -1.71% | -1.60% | 21.57% | 1.83% | 8.97% | 9.13% | 4.12% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.34% | -2.35% | -9.78% | -0.75% | 9.28% | 10.45% | 5.84% | 2.88% | 0.90% | 0.43% | 2.91% | 8.39% |
| 2024 | -4.63% | -0.19% | 5.82% | -6.25% | 4.28% | -2.10% | 15.91% | 2.51% | 1.57% | 5.80% | 6.15% | -0.37% |
| 2023 | 17.74% | -2.90% | -13.93% | -4.53% | -5.87% | 8.52% | -1.01% | -5.11% | -1.58% | -3.48% | 12.67% | 7.32% |
| 2022 | 1.61% | -9.70% | 2.73% | -23.13% | 8.24% | -14.19% | 15.23% | -3.79% | -10.11% | 21.69% | 7.66% | -1.85% |
| 2021 | -3.82% | 3.96% | 16.15% | -0.07% | 3.61% | -4.80% | 5.91% | 6.62% | -8.21% | 16.32% | -9.72% | 5.17% |
| 2020 | -9.94% | -20.99% | 18.34% | -3.30% | 5.14% | 0.38% | 6.74% | -12.10% | -0.72% | 19.66% | 4.01% | |
| Avg | 2.89% | -3.26% | -3.09% | 0.74% | 2.58% | 1.71% | 7.34% | 1.64% | -4.92% | 6.67% | 6.56% | 3.78% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +53.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
STT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
STT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
STT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
STT Distribution of Daily % Changes