Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.45% | 10.64% | 1.64% | -2.11% | -6.30% | 4.76% | -4.49% | -2.42% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.46% | -13.70% | 0.62% | 4.08% | 5.82% | -2.75% | 7.80% | 1.08% | 8.99% | 2.92% | 3.02% | -6.11% |
| 2024 | -4.24% | -1.34% | 2.64% | -0.28% | 7.54% | -0.45% | 5.26% | 2.65% | 2.53% | -0.31% | 12.35% | -5.71% |
| 2023 | 3.75% | -6.47% | 1.62% | 2.86% | -7.69% | 1.44% | 3.20% | -5.76% | -2.31% | 2.94% | 4.06% | 3.40% |
| 2022 | 4.45% | 4.39% | 17.42% | -4.02% | 1.55% | -8.29% | 11.20% | -0.50% | -8.48% | 0.67% | 10.10% | -6.32% |
| 2021 | -2.86% | -6.29% | 15.29% | 3.76% | -1.51% | -2.22% | -0.57% | 1.31% | -3.62% | 0.89% | -6.08% | 11.31% |
| 2020 | -12.99% | -18.33% | 9.61% | 1.99% | -6.37% | 6.17% | -0.65% | -3.40% | 5.91% | 1.69% | 0.76% | |
| Avg | -0.97% | -3.68% | 2.98% | 1.99% | 0.20% | -1.98% | 4.08% | -0.31% | -1.05% | 2.17% | 4.19% | -0.45% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -3.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
SRE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SRE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SRE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SRE Distribution of Daily % Changes