Seasonality
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SPGI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.0% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +7.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -14.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.99% | -16.08% | -3.74% | 1.38% | -1.45% | -3.95% | 6.91% | 1.67% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.69% | 2.55% | -4.80% | -1.58% | 2.75% | 2.81% | 4.52% | -0.31% | -11.26% | 0.10% | 2.59% | 4.76% |
| 2024 | 1.78% | -4.26% | -0.68% | -2.26% | 3.03% | 4.33% | 8.68% | 6.07% | 0.66% | -7.02% | 8.97% | -4.69% |
| 2023 | 11.94% | -8.76% | 1.05% | 5.17% | 1.59% | 9.11% | -1.59% | -0.69% | -6.51% | -4.41% | 19.30% | 5.94% |
| 2022 | -12.02% | -9.34% | 9.18% | -8.21% | -6.95% | -3.55% | 11.83% | -6.35% | -13.30% | 5.21% | 10.08% | -5.06% |
| 2021 | -3.57% | 4.14% | 7.14% | 10.63% | -2.60% | 8.16% | 4.45% | 3.70% | -4.27% | 11.60% | -3.73% | 3.55% |
| 2020 | -9.26% | -7.84% | 19.52% | 11.21% | 1.37% | 6.30% | 4.81% | -1.59% | -10.50% | 9.22% | -6.55% | |
| Avg | 0.64% | -5.86% | 0.04% | 3.52% | 1.08% | 2.61% | 5.87% | 1.21% | -6.04% | -0.84% | 7.74% | -0.34% |
SPGI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SPGI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SPGI Distribution of Daily % Changes