Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +12.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -10.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +20.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
SPG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.35% | 6.55% | -7.44% | 9.21% | 0.59% | 10.34% | 2.56% | -4.27% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.96% | 7.03% | -9.64% | -5.24% | 3.62% | -0.12% | 1.88% | 10.30% | 5.12% | -6.35% | 6.01% | 0.57% |
| 2024 | -2.83% | 6.88% | 7.01% | -10.20% | 7.67% | 1.65% | 1.08% | 9.07% | 2.27% | 0.06% | 8.56% | -5.12% |
| 2023 | 9.35% | -4.96% | -6.92% | 1.21% | -7.21% | 11.66% | 7.90% | -8.92% | -3.22% | 1.72% | 13.65% | 15.88% |
| 2022 | -7.87% | -6.55% | -3.15% | -10.31% | -2.84% | -15.94% | 14.45% | -6.13% | -10.48% | 21.43% | 9.60% | -0.13% |
| 2021 | 8.97% | 21.51% | 0.75% | 8.21% | 5.54% | 1.55% | -1.98% | 6.27% | -2.24% | 12.78% | 4.27% | 5.64% |
| 2020 | -6.15% | -55.43% | 21.71% | -13.58% | 18.51% | -6.98% | 8.82% | -4.67% | -1.08% | 31.46% | 4.91% | |
| Avg | 1.99% | 3.47% | -10.69% | 2.08% | -0.89% | 3.95% | 2.70% | 3.23% | -2.20% | 4.76% | 12.26% | 3.63% |
SPG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SPG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SPG Distribution of Daily % Changes