Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -2.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
SO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SO Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.42% | 9.89% | -0.88% | 0.19% | -4.02% | 3.98% | -1.22% | -1.84% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.98% | 7.86% | 2.41% | -0.07% | -1.23% | 2.03% | 2.89% | -1.53% | 2.68% | -0.77% | -2.31% | -4.30% |
| 2024 | -0.86% | -2.24% | 6.68% | 2.45% | 10.03% | -3.21% | 7.67% | 4.31% | 4.38% | 0.94% | -1.28% | -7.64% |
| 2023 | -5.22% | -5.85% | 10.34% | 5.71% | -4.27% | 0.72% | 2.98% | -5.40% | -4.44% | 3.99% | 6.53% | -1.21% |
| 2022 | 1.33% | -5.83% | 11.95% | 1.21% | 4.05% | -5.75% | 7.83% | 1.12% | -11.77% | -3.71% | 4.39% | 5.57% |
| 2021 | -4.09% | -2.72% | 9.59% | 6.45% | -2.42% | -5.33% | 5.55% | 3.96% | -5.72% | 0.56% | -0.92% | 12.24% |
| 2020 | -13.49% | -10.30% | 4.78% | 1.79% | -9.15% | 5.32% | -3.33% | 3.91% | 5.96% | 5.24% | 2.64% | |
| Avg | -0.74% | -1.77% | 4.25% | 2.96% | 0.56% | -2.39% | 4.43% | -0.15% | -1.83% | 1.16% | 1.94% | 1.22% |