Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +8.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
SHW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.45% | 2.24% | -11.40% | 0.33% | -5.28% | 13.32% | -1.01% | 5.35% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.36% | 1.15% | -3.40% | 1.07% | 1.89% | -4.31% | -3.63% | 10.80% | -5.35% | -0.38% | -0.13% | -5.72% |
| 2024 | -2.41% | 9.33% | 4.61% | -13.74% | 1.63% | -1.77% | 17.55% | 5.51% | 3.33% | -6.00% | 10.97% | -14.46% |
| 2023 | -0.31% | -6.19% | 1.55% | 5.68% | -3.85% | 16.57% | 4.14% | -1.51% | -6.13% | -6.60% | 17.31% | 11.87% |
| 2022 | -18.64% | -7.95% | -5.13% | 10.15% | -2.29% | -16.46% | 8.05% | -3.84% | -11.78% | 9.90% | 11.01% | -4.76% |
| 2021 | -5.87% | -1.41% | 8.48% | 11.33% | 3.73% | -3.91% | 6.82% | 4.53% | -7.88% | 13.18% | 4.79% | 6.32% |
| 2020 | -6.99% | -11.07% | 16.72% | 10.98% | -2.69% | 12.13% | 3.78% | 3.83% | -1.26% | 8.87% | -1.70% | |
| Avg | -2.07% | -1.40% | -2.34% | 4.51% | 0.97% | 0.11% | 6.29% | 3.21% | -4.00% | 1.47% | 8.80% | -1.41% |
SHW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SHW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SHW Distribution of Daily % Changes