Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +5.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -5.8% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +2.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
SBAC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SBAC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SBAC Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.82% | 9.26% | -13.86% | 28.52% | -7.60% | -13.14% | 2.56% | 2.33% | ||||
| 2025 | -3.06% | 10.30% | 1.49% | 10.63% | -4.27% | 1.27% | -4.31% | -8.39% | -5.61% | -0.97% | 2.02% | -0.43% |
| 2024 | -11.76% | -6.54% | 4.03% | -14.11% | 6.20% | -0.19% | 11.84% | 3.71% | 6.19% | -4.67% | -0.96% | -9.92% |
| 2023 | 6.14% | -12.83% | 1.01% | -0.07% | -14.67% | 4.50% | -5.53% | 2.95% | -10.85% | 4.23% | 18.80% | 2.73% |
| 2022 | -16.34% | -6.78% | 13.67% | 0.87% | -2.81% | -4.92% | 4.92% | -2.93% | -12.48% | -5.18% | 11.16% | -6.34% |
| 2021 | -4.77% | -5.04% | 9.05% | 7.99% | -0.34% | 6.90% | 6.99% | 5.45% | -7.91% | 4.46% | -0.28% | 13.15% |
| 2020 | 6.22% | 2.01% | 7.39% | 8.52% | -5.16% | 4.57% | -1.61% | 4.05% | -8.83% | -0.94% | -1.76% | |
| Avg | -5.77% | -0.77% | 2.48% | 5.89% | -2.14% | -1.53% | 3.01% | -0.14% | -4.43% | -1.82% | 4.97% | -0.43% |
SBAC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data