Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.1% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +5.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.79% | 6.47% | -4.36% | -4.20% | -4.20% | 6.31% | -0.90% | 1.98% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.11% | 9.29% | 2.17% | 3.79% | 2.61% | -4.15% | -6.25% | 1.44% | -1.92% | -9.01% | 4.24% | -2.36% |
| 2024 | 3.77% | 7.29% | 4.27% | 0.42% | -3.40% | 4.94% | 0.27% | 7.15% | -3.54% | -1.13% | 10.25% | -7.84% |
| 2023 | -3.23% | 3.29% | 5.26% | 6.95% | -2.07% | 8.50% | -1.34% | -4.62% | -0.76% | 4.20% | 8.99% | 2.23% |
| 2022 | -8.45% | -5.78% | 10.54% | 1.34% | -0.32% | -1.87% | 5.95% | 2.93% | -4.34% | -2.51% | 5.03% | -7.04% |
| 2021 | -6.00% | -1.58% | 11.99% | 7.00% | 2.71% | 1.15% | 7.59% | 4.87% | -2.91% | 12.11% | -1.74% | 5.79% |
| 2020 | -5.04% | -16.40% | 4.37% | 9.09% | -3.51% | 6.34% | 6.27% | 1.14% | -5.55% | 9.70% | 0.01% | |
| Avg | -0.67% | 1.99% | 1.92% | 2.81% | 0.63% | 1.62% | 1.67% | 3.01% | -2.05% | -0.32% | 6.08% | -1.54% |
RSG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RSG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RSG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RSG Distribution of Daily % Changes